After Christine O’Donnell won the Republican nomination for the Senate race in Delaware, Democrats appeared to heave a sigh of relief. The long-shot path to losing the Senate appeared to require the GOP to take Joe Biden’s old seat, and with Mike Castle sidelined, their control of one chamber of Congress looked assured. Not so fast, warns political analyst and prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg.
Rothenberg figures the GOP to take seats away from Democrats in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The GOP has an edge in Illinois as well, giving them six pickups. If Ken Buck stays ahead in Colorado and Sharron Angle can take advantage of Harry Reid’s unpopularity in Nevada, that will be eight seats.
Republicans would just need to split four other races in Washington, Connecticut, California, and West Virginia — and this is where it starts to look interesting. John Raese is moving ahead of Joe Manchin in WV, where conservative voters don’t want to send another Democrat to the Senate to replace Robert Byrd. Linda McMahon is closing in on Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut, making it a virtual dead heat. And the news out of Washington suddenly got worse for Democrats, according to the latest Rasmussen survey.
Republicans have a shot at all four races mentioned by Rothenberg as the long shots. It’s possible to pick up not eight or nine, but eleven or even twelve. It’s still a long shot to do so, but a big wave on Election Day may carry Connecticut and California, while Rossi seems to be picking a good time to show momentum, as voters will start casting ballots by mail in the next couple of weeks. It certainly will make for an exciting Election Night.