Romney: The Odds-On Favorite To Win GOP Nomination In 2012 With A Caveat

Gallup's Lydia Saad expounds on why former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the odds-on favorite to win the 2012 GOP nomination. That said, Saad's analysis does contain a caveat.

Six in 10 Republican registered voters, nationwide, now believe Mitt Romney is the candidate most likely to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, up from 39% saying this in December and exceeding his previous high of 47% from November.

Romney has also crossed into the 30% range for the first time in voter preferences for the nomination. However, in a race as volatile as this one has been, it is worth noting that Romney's 12-percentage-point lead over Santorum in voter preferences is nowhere near as strong as his 49-point lead in expectations for who will win.

Romney not only has to win in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but he has to meet expectations and then carry that momentum into South Carolina and beyond. Otherwise, both Santorum and Gingrich are currently positioned closely enough behind Romney on the ballot to conceivably make another run for the lead.


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published this page in In The News 2012-01-10 02:03:58 -0500
Analysis & Political Strategy