Republican Presidential Nomination Battle Could Be A Prolonged Slog

Solid analysis on the battle for the Republican presidential nomination, courtesy of the The New York Times' Nate Silver:

Whatever your perspective on how likely Mitt Romney was to lose the Republican nomination race prior to Tuesday evening, it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable.

What’s more, the victor in all three states was Mr. Santorum, who is probably much more dangerous to Mr. Romney than Newt Gingrich. Mr. Gingrich had an awful evening, finishing a distant third in Colorado and last in Minnesota. But that may only work against Mr. Romney in the end.

Mr. Romney clearly has a lot of advantages in the nomination race, and Mr. Santorum will need to scale his campaign up to the national level, something he had failed to do successfully after Iowa.

[T]his race bears more resemblance to something like the 1984 Democratic contest or the 1976 Republican race. There was a favorite in each of those contests — Walter Mondale in 1984 and Gerald Ford in 1976 — and they were ahead in the delegate count more or less from start to finish.

But both contests progressed through all 50 states and were not that far from going to the convention. A few more missteps for Mr. Mondale or Mr. Ford, and the outcome might have been different.

The most generous interpretation of Tuesday night’s results is that Mr. Romney’s campaign failed to make much of an effort in the contests.

Fortunately for Mr. Romney, none of his rivals are in the same ballpark as Mrs. Clinton’s opponent, Barack Obama, as measured by metrics like fundraising, organizational strength, or oratorical skill. But Mr. Romney is not a strong enough candidate that he can afford more nights as bad as Tuesday.


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@FordOConnell retweeted @PoliticalQB 2012-02-08 11:13:03 -0500
Republican Presidential Nomination Battle Could Be A Prolonged Slog - http://t.co/HnWv4z5o #TCOT #GOP
@CivicForumPAC retweeted @PoliticalQB 2012-02-08 11:13:03 -0500
Republican Presidential Nomination Battle Could Be A Prolonged Slog - http://t.co/HnWv4z5o #TCOT #GOP
published this page in In The News 2012-02-08 11:10:54 -0500
Analysis & Political Strategy