Republican Susana Martinez now has a 10-point lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, moving the New Mexico governor’s race from a Toss-Up to Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
The latest telephone survey of Likely Voters in New Mexico shows Martinez, a county prosecutor, receiving 51% support, while Denish picks up 41% of the vote when leaners are included. Three percent (3%) favors another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is the second Rasmussen Reports look at this race to include leaners. Last month, Martinez, earning her highest level of support yet, posted a 51% to 44% lead over Denish when leaners were part of the totals. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.
Denish is getting a lot of help from national Democrats in the race with former President Bill Cinton scheduled to visit the state next month on her behalf. Vice President Joe Biden was in New Mexico to campaign for Denish on the day this survey was taken.
If leaners are not included in the totals, support for both candidates changes little, with Martinez ahead 50% to 40%. Last month, the GOP candidate was ahead 48% to 43% when leaners were not included.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted on September 29, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.