Primary “Primer” 2 — Iowa & South Carolina

IA and SC get lumped together because people so love to extrapolate every result from each and opine on the possible implications those numbers could have on the their respective presidential primaries.

South Carolina:

Governor — If you’re not paying attention to this race at this point, you probably don’t care about politics. The story lines are too many to count.  Nikki Haley, Henry McMaster, Gresham Barrett, and Andre Bauer make up, without a doubt, the deepest field seeking a Republican nomination so far this election cycle.  Throw in not one, but two sex scandals, a Sarah Palin/Mitt Romney vs. John McCain/Rudy Giuliani endorsement war, and Governor Sanford’s political machine… and you’ve got one heck of a race.

At this point, it looks like Haley’s going to win this fairly handily, but avoiding a runoff election by drawing an actual majority of the total vote seems pretty unlikely — so the real interesting thing to watch will be who is able to slide into that second spot and make a run at her the next time around.

US House — Districts 1, 3, and 4 are all notable this time around in SC.  In the 1st, nine GOP candidates are on the ballot, including Strom Thurmond’s son and former Governor Campbell’s son.

In the 3rd, GOP State Reps Jeff Duncan and Rex Rice are both running strong, neither of whom being likely to lose in the general.

As for the 4th, incumbent Representative Bob Inglis is fighting for his life, with a primary runoff likely to decide his fate.

Iowa:

Governor — ex-Governor-forever Branstad is leading yet again in the GOP primary against tea party favorite Bob Vander Platts. Either should be able to hold the Gov’s mansion come November.

And watch to see how the 3rd Congressional GOP primary pans out, as it could wind up in a convention if none of the current candidates can clear the 35% hurdle.

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