To paraphrase Homer Simpson, Lauren Howie was the cause of and possibly solution to Republicans' struggle to build a coalition of voters that can again win the White House.
Howie, a 27-year-old African-American from Cleveland, was not thrilled with President Obama's performance in his first term, according to an analysis of the election released this week by the Associated Press. She thought he hadn't delivered on promises to reduce college debt, promote women's rights and address climate change.
And she wouldn't have voted for him except for one thing: She thought even less of his opponent, Mitt Romney. "I got the feeling Mitt Romney couldn't care less about me and my fellow African-Americans," said Howie, an administrative assistant at Case Western Reserve University's medical school who is paying off college debt.
Read more from Ford O'Connell at U.S. News & World Report
As Conan O’Brien put it last Saturday night, Marco Rubio is the Republicans’ “black guy.”
That is, he’s the charismatic, young, minority senator who is clearly running for president – as then-Sen. Barack Obama was just a few years ago. And if the early polls on 2016 are any guide, Senator Rubio of Florida is a strong contender, if not the strongest, for the Republican nomination.
But there’s a big difference between how Senator Obama ran for president and how Rubio appears to be running.
Rubio is in a wholly different boat. As the only experienced Hispanic senator in the Republican Party – now joined by the more hard-line conservative Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas – Rubio is a natural ambassador to a voting bloc that Republicans desperately need to attract. And after GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s poor performance with Latino voters (just 27 percent), Rubio understands that enacting comprehensive immigration reform can help his party overcome Latinos’ resistance to the Republican brand, analysts say.
In response, Rubio has positioned himself as one of the lead Republicans on the issue. He probably had no choice.
“Usually you stay away from having a long vote record or taking on a serious initiative, because having a long vote record can be hazardous to your presidential health,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “But Rubio recognized that if the Republican Party is to win the White House in 2016, it will need more than the white vote.”
Read more from Linda Feldmann at the Christian Science Monitor
The Tea Party movement is preparing to use ObamaCare's rollout to catapult itself back into political power.
Tea Party leaders have been watching closely as President Obama and other prominent Democrats predict glitches in the law's implementation. Conservative activists see these concessions as a major boon for Tea Party candidates in 2014 as Republicans seek to hold the House and take the Senate.
"The Tea Party is certainly dying as a movement," said Ford O'Connell, a GOP strategist. "They definitely need some new life breathed into them, and [implementation] is the issue to do that. They need to make it work. If they can't hack it in 2014, they're done."
A poll this week found that four in 10 people aren't aware that the Affordable Care Act is still on the books. Other surveys have founds that false claims about "death panels" and benefits for undocumented workers still hold sway.
O'Connell said these misunderstandings will be profitable for conservatives, particularly given the emotional nature of debates about healthcare."Sometimes winning elections isn't about the moveable middle but about targeting the easily misled," he said. "What people don't know is a very powerful campaign tool."
Read more from Elise Viebeck at The Hill
The Republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief when Boston businessman Gabriel Gomez won Tuesday's GOP primary in the Massachusetts special election Senate race, believing he represents the party's best chance at an unlikely pick-up in liberal Massachusetts.
Gomez, a Hispanic former Navy SEAL investment firm executive, has the type of outsider credibility and centrist leanings the GOP hopes will play well against 18-term Rep. Edward Markey, the Democratic nominee.
Here are six things that Gomez needs to pull off an upset:
2. Outside Republican groups must spend heavily in the race.
Republicans agree that Gomez won’t have a chance if outside groups don’t invest heavily in the race, but a number of strategists for groups that typically get involved say they’re holding their fire until polling on the race comes in.
While Republicans agree Gomez is a strong candidate, the groups are wary of investing in a lost cause, and are looking for evidence that the climate in Massachusetts could be favorable for a Republican.
But that early money could make all the difference as Gomez seeks to define himself and Markey in the early days of the campaign. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said an early investment could cause Democrats to spend money on what they consider to be a safe seat.
“Spending now to find out if you can get a boost is better than waiting to see if the boost can come around. Frontloading the money, and forcing Democrats to spend there, might be a little bit smarter,” he said.
Read more from Alexandra Jaffe at The Hill
President Obama's relationship with Republican leaders in Congress has hit a new low.
The president's personal jab at Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over the weekend came as his relationship with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has soured over the last year.
“I’m not so sure the president was joking; to some extent, I think it was a fair assessment when [Obama said], ‘You have a drink with Mitch McConnell, no you.' It’s gotten to that point, Capitol Hill is a pretty entrenched place and neither the president nor congressional Republicans have the power to prevail on any issue,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said.
Read more from Molly Hooper at The Hill
Whether or not his bipartisan immigration reform effort fails, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has primed himself for crossover appeal. In the face of a Republican Party that has been labeled as full of old, white, rich men, the young, charismatic politician whose parents emigrated from Cuba already presented a refreshing alternative. But now he can add "deal-maker" and "maverick" to his resume – something that will further confound Democrats in a potential 2016 match-up, experts say.
Rubio, long seen as a potential GOP presidential candidate, has spent serious political capital by crafting and attempting to sell to conservative media an immigration reform package that calls for ramped up border security, but also allows a path to citizenship for the nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the United States.
"Basically it makes his quest for the nomination more difficult, but definitely makes him a much more attractive candidate," says Ford O'Connell, a Republican political strategist who worked on the McCain-Palin campaign in 2008. "Besides the security, the economics of it, the pathway to citizenship makes it clear that he understands the GOP is running out of white voters."
Read more from Rebekah Metzler at U.S. News & World Report
After several years of complaining that Congress didn't have a budget, Republicans are now the ones holding up the 2014 budget process.
Both the GOP-led House and Democrat-controlled Senate have passed plans, but House Speaker John A. Boehner seems in no hurry to create the official conference committee that would hammer out differences.
Democrats, tired of taking fire for their budget record, are on the offensive, with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trying to jump-start final budget negotiations Tuesday. He took to the Senate floor and made a motion to formally set up the Senate budget negotiating team, but the GOP blocked it.
But top Republicans in both chambers said they wanted to hold informal talks first to see what kind of final budget deal is possible.
GOP strategist Ford O'Connell said the path to a so-called grand bargain is narrow, but possible, and Mr. Obama got a discussion started with a plan to reduce entitlement spending by $800 billion over 10 years.
"But he is fooling himself if he thinks that will get Republicans to raise more revenues," Mr. O'Connell said. "If the president can get Democrats to get more serious about entitlement reform — which doesn't seem likely right now — then I think you will see Republicans put revenue on the table and a deal will get done. But until then, we will continue to careen from fiscal crisis to fiscal crisis."
Read more from David Sherfinski at The Washington Times
US. Sen. Marco Rubio rode a Tea Party wave to victory in 2010 and has became a leading voice for the conservative movement over the last two years.
But you would not know either by the treatment he has received since releasing details of a comprehensive immigration reform plan.
Just in the last week, TeaParty.Org called it the "Amnesty Bill," and talk radio star Rush Limbaugh said he would never understand Rubio's plan.
Even Heritage Foundation leader and former U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, one of Rubio's mentors, said the ideas in the bill were a violation of the rule of law.
The roughest reception had to come from author and FOX News contributor Ann Coulter, who said Rubio was telling the "Mount Vesuvius of lies about his immigration bill."
The big public relations campaign shows how serious Rubio really is about the issue, said Ford O'Connell, a veteran GOP strategist based in Virginia. He said Rubio is showing he is "all in on immigration."
Read more from Jeremy Wallace at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Isn't it interesting how any time an idea from the left fails in Congress, it's not because lawmakers honored the will of the people or did what was best for the country but because some outside nefarious force bought the votes? So it was on Wednesday, when President Obama took to the Rose Garden to denounce senators who opposed the gun-control package as in the pay of the National Rifle Association (NRA).
NRA, Gun Owners of America and others certainly have some influence on gun legislation, but the left needs to admit much more went into the decision-making in the Senate. The wise lawmaker rarely gets too far ahead of constituents and never gets too far ahead at the ballot box. For the measures to have prevailed, at least nine Republicans would've had to get substantially ahead of constituents and the ballot box, and a handful of Democrats involved in what should be tight elections in 2014 would've had to follow suit. It simply wasn't going to happen.
Read more from Ford O'Connell at U.S. News & World Report
No doubt about it, liberal activists are angry with President Obama over his budget proposal, which includes cost-saving changes to Social Security and Medicare – two of the biggest pillars of the nation’s social safety net.
AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, a usually reliable ally of the president, assailed the proposal Wednesday as “wrong and indefensible.” The day before, progressives delivered 2 million petition signatures to the White House denouncing the plan. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) of Vermont, a self-described Democratic Socialist, accompanied the group, megaphone in hand.
“We are not going to balance the budget on the backs of the elderly, disabled vets, the sick, the women, or the children,” Senator Sanders said.
“Obama is cleverly using it as a bargaining chip to give himself wiggle room on other key agenda items like gun control and immigration reform, while still leaving open the minuscule possibility of reaching a budget grand bargain,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
Read more from Linda Feldmann at The Christian Science Monitor