Obama's Stance On Same-Sex Marriage Could Cost Him Key Votes

Regardless of your views on same-sex marriage. There is a reason President Obama was "evolving" on same-sex marriage - it could cost him votes in key battleground states. Only time will tell how this plays out at the ballot box. Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones has more:

A majority of Americans, 60%, say President Barack Obama's newly announced support for same-sex marriage will make no difference to their vote. Twice as many say it will make them less likely to vote for Obama as say more likely, though roughly half of the "less likely" group are Republicans who probably would not support Obama anyway.

Thus, a key to assessing how the change in Obama's view of same-sex marriage will affect his vote share this fall would be to look at its effect on independents, and on Democrats and Republicans whose views are different from the majority of their party.

Specifically, 23% of independents and 10% of Democrats say it makes them less likely to vote for Obama, while a smaller 11% of independents and 2% of Republicans say it makes them more likely to vote for Obama. Those figures suggest Obama's gay marriage position is likely to cost him more independent and Democratic votes than he would gain in independent and Republican votes, clearly indicating that his new position is more of a net minus than a net plus for him. However, those figures also underscore that it is a relatively limited group of voters -- about one in three independents and fewer than one in 10 Republicans or Democrats -- whose votes may change as a result of Obama's new stance on gay marriage.

Does President Obama’s support for same-sex marriage make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or doesn’t it make any difference? May 2012 results

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published this page in In The News 2012-05-12 12:42:00 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy