Nate Silver: GOP Well Positioned In Governors Races

As has become customary in our gubernatorial updates, our focus is more on a race-by-race basis, since while Republicans are overwhelming favorites to control a majority of governorships after Nov. 2.

Overall, the model sets the over-under line on the number of governorships Republicans will control after Nov. 2 at between 30 and 31, which is unchanged from last week.

Read more from Nate Silver at The New York Times

Gubernatorial Takeover Chances As Of 9/29/10

CURRENT PARTY CHANCE THAT PARTY LOSES SEAT —— PROJECTED VOTE ——
D % R % I % MARGIN
Florida * 100% 49 48 Sink +1
Kansas 100% 38 60 Brownback +23
Oklahoma 100% 39 59 Fallin +20
Iowa 99% 40 56 Branstad +16
Tennessee 98% 41 56 Haslam +15
Wyoming 96% 40 57 Mead +16
Michigan 96% 43 54 Snyder +12
Pa. 93% 45 53 Corbett +9
Hawaii 91% 55 44 Abercrombie +11
Illinois 91% 43 52 Brady +8
Conn. 89% 53 45 Malloy +8
R.I. 89% 36 28 32 Caprio +4
Maine 87% 38 47 12 LePage +9
Ohio 87% 46 52 Kasich +6
Wisconsin 84% 46 52 Walker +6
Vermont 81% 52 47 Shumlin +6
Minnesota 78% 45 40 12 Dayton +5
N.M. 65% 48 50 Martinez +2
Calif. 60% 50 48 Brown +1
Oregon 59% 49 50 Dudley +1
Maryland 33% 50 48 O’Malley +3
Mass. 29% 45 41 10 Patrick +4
Georgia 22% 46 51 Deal +5
Texas 14% 45 51 Perry +7
N.H. 11% 52 45 Lynch +8
S.C. 5% 43 54 Haley +12
New York 2% 56 43 Cuomo +13
S. Dakota 1% 40 57 Daugaard +17
Alabama 1% 41 57 Bentley +16
Arkansas 1% 56 41 Beebe +16
Arizona 1% 41 57 Brewer +17
Colorado 1% 48 26 25 Hickenlooper +21
Alaska 1% 40 57 Parnell +18
Nevada 1% 41 57 Sandoval +16
Idaho 1% 39 57 Otter +18
Utah 0% 35 61 Herbert +27
Nebraska 0% 34 63 Heineman +30

* Charlie Crist was elected as a Republican but changed to no party affiliation in May.

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