Is Pennsylvania Really In Play For Romney?

Romney will certainly do better in the Keystone State than John McCain did in 2008 - Team Romney can thank, among other things, Obama's dreadful energy policies for that.

But are we at the point where Romey should focus on Pennsylvania to the same degree as Florida, Virginia and Ohio? Not yet, but this could certainly change. 

That said, if Romney wins Pennyslvania he will almost certainly become the next president. RealClearPolitics' Scott Conroy has more:

Despite earnest assurances that they are taking nothing for granted, a commonly held view among the president’s re-election team is that the Keystone State is all but in the bag. Romney’s team, on the other hand, has long been eyeing it as a realistic and potentially decisive pickup for the Republican challenger.

At first glance, there is little empirical evidence to back up that claim.

The president has been ahead in every Pennsylvania poll since Romney became the GOP nominee, and he leads the Republican challenger by seven percentage points in the latest RCP polling average.

A Republican presidential candidate has not won there since 1988, though it has served as fool’s gold for every recent GOP nominee. In 2008, for example, John McCain’s campaign continued to push hard in Pennsylvania long after they had given up on other states he had hoped to take from the Democratic column, such as Michigan.

Romney, on the other hand, has not yet aired any general election ads in the state.

Romney’s commitment to Pennsylvania has been evidenced by his five trips there since May, and campaign strategists say that TV ads might begin after Aug. 29, when the candidate officially becomes the GOP nominee following a roll call vote at the Republican convention in Tampa.

At that moment, Romney’s massive general election war chest will become available for the final two months of the campaign.

But with the convention speeches, debates, and a possible Romney advertising blitz on the horizon, there is ample reason to believe that the dynamic is in fact fluid.

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@Sarah_SV mentioned @PoliticalQB link to this page. 2012-08-06 14:28:06 -0400
#GOP sees opportunity in #Pennsylvania, but is it fools gold? Is PA in play for Romney? http://t.co/XpoUfAdH via @politicalqb #p2 #TCOT
@FordOConnell tweeted link to this page. 2012-08-06 12:47:47 -0400
My ode to @RealClearScott, RE: Is PA in play for Romney? - http://t.co/4rVHZHH1 #GOP
published this page in In The News 2012-08-06 12:39:00 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy