According to the FiveThirtyEight “now-cast” on Friday, Mr. Romney would be a 78 percent favorite to win Florida in an election held today. Projecting forward to Nov. 6 introduces a bit more uncertainty, but he’s now a 69 percent favorite to carry the state on Election Day, according to the model.
Mr. Romney’s gains in Florida call into question how vigorously the campaigns should be contesting it over the final two weeks of the campaign. Mr. Romney might consider relaxing his efforts there, while Mr. Obama’s campaign might consider de-emphasizing the state.
Based on the FiveThirtyEight tipping-point index, Florida is now only the ninth-most-important state in the Electoral College math. There is only about a 2 percent chance that the decisive Electoral College vote will be cast in that state on Nov. 6.