Incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley and Republican challenger Bob Ehrlich remain essentially tied for the third month in a row in the race for governor of Maryland.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds O’Malley with 45% support and Ehrlich earning 44% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
A month ago, Ehrlich squeaked ahead 47% to 46%. But the rematch of the 2006 governor’s race has been tight from the start. In February, O’Malley led 49% to 43%, but by April it was a closer 47% to 44%. By June, the two were tied with 45% of the vote each.
When leaners are included in the new results, O’Malley and Ehrlich are tied at 47% apiece.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey of the Maryland governor’s race to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) of O’Malley’s voters are already certain how they will vote in November, and 72% of Ehrlich’s voters say the same.
The statewide survey of 750 Likely Voters in Maryland was conducted on August 17, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.