Control Of U.S. Senate Could Come Down To Five States

From The Rothenberg Political Report:

Right now, control of the Senate appears to rest on the outcomes in five states - four of them held by Democrats - Montana, North Dakota, Virginia and Wisconsin - and one of them by a Republican - Massachusetts.

Assuming that Republicans take the Nebraska and Missouri Senate seats and Democrats finally win back a Senate seat in Maine, the GOP will need to win four of the five seats that will decide control of the Senate for two more years.

Other seats certainly could be in the mix - Florida and Nevada look the most likely - but the five states now seem to be the most likely to determine control. And strategists on both sides of the aisle have a harder time imagining Ohio, New Mexico, Hawaii, Indiana or Arizona flipping parties, though those states certainly are worth watching as some of the underdog candidates in those states are running strong races in generally unfriendly territory.

The presidential contest could well determine control of the Senate.

If swing voters turn to Romney in the final weeks of the campaign, they could also turn to George Allen in Virginia, Denny Rehberg in Montana and Berg in North Dakota, improving the GOP's chances of netting the three seats they need if Romney wins the White House. But if Romney fades, it is more difficult to imagine Virginia and Wisconsin voting for Obama for president and for a Republican for the Senate.

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published this page in In The News 2012-08-12 15:00:00 -0400
Analysis & Political Strategy