CFP’s National Narrative: Tuesday’s Elections

My question, who’s in the best shape going into his or her respective election tomorrow — party-flipping incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (PA), Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, GOP congressional hopeful Tim Burns (PA) or Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson?

Here’s the order in which I believe they’ll finish, in terms of who will get the highest percentage of the vote:

1) Lincoln (51%) — She’s the only one I consider to be a definite win tomorrow night.  I think the big money push on the left could possibly bring Halter within 7-8 points, but I’m guessing Lincoln just barely eeks out enough votes to avoid a runoff when everything’s over.

2) Tim Burns (49%) — I’m copping out on this one, as I truly don’t know if the momentum of the Burns camp will be able to overtake the registration advantage Critz and the Dems currently enjoy in that district.   If Burns wins I will be absolutely thrilled, but I still consider him to be an underdog by 2 points or so.

That being said, here’s how to help him.

3) Arlen Specter (47%) — When I saw that he had to cut an ad going after Sestak’s anti-gun position in the western PA media markets, I decided that he actually had pulled even, just as the polls suggest.  I can’t see too many Democratic primary voters outside of the cities being too incredibly excited for Specter, so I’m going with a comfortable 4-6 point win for Sestak, thanks largely to the Philly suburbs.

4) Put a fork in Trey Grayson (maybe 40%) — I will be very surprised if Rand Paul doesn’t win this by double-digits, with a 15 or 16 point margin seeming very possible.  I’m still very much hesitant about a Rand Paul candidacy, but that can be hashed out in later posts.

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