Absentee And Early Voting Hurt Gingrich's Chances In Florida

Assuming arguendo, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich wins the South Carolina primary, he will be hardpressed to duplicate that victory in Florida. The Examiner's Philip Kelin explains:

Even if Newt Gingrich surges to victory in South Carolina on Saturday, his ability to take advantage of any momentum heading into Florida will be partially blunted by the fact that about 184,000 people have already voted in the Sunshine State, where Mitt Romney currently has a commanding lead. That's about 9 percent of the roughly 2 million votes expected to be cast in the January 31st primary.

So far, 174,135 absentee ballots have been returned, according to Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, and an additional 9,635 votes have been cast in five counties allowing early voting.

If Gingrich wins South Carolina, tradition would dictate that he'll probably get a bounce -- but that won't be reflected in the votes that have already been cast.

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published this page in In The News 2012-01-20 16:07:00 -0500
Analysis & Political Strategy