2012 Electoral Map Projection – October 2011 Update

The Political Quarterback’s 2012 Electoral College scorecard remains relatively unchanged from July 2011. At the end of September, President Obama’s approval rating continues to sag and polls show strong showings by candidates Romney, Perry and even Cain against the increasingly unpopular incumbent.

The full Electoral College scorecard follows the breakdown of the toss-up states ranked by their likelihood to swing to the GOP column, based on the current political landscape:


2012 Presidential Battleground States
(Ranked By Likelihood Of GOP Takeover)

1. North Carolina: Lean GOP

• Electoral votes: 15
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• Obama has all but lost the Tar Heel State. Putting the Democratic convention in Charlotte was a wise move to force the GOP to spend more money in state that they have essentially already won.

2. Iowa: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 6
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• Mitt Romney was right – the GOP will likely win the Hawkeye State, even if Romney is not the favorite of Iowa caucus voters.

3. Virginia: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 13
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• President Obama won big in Virginia the last time around, but Republicans have turned the corner in Virginia thanks to the efforts of Governor Bob McDonnell (R). Having Tim Kaine’s U.S. Senate bid at the top of the ticket with Obama, could make this a very close race.

4. Florida: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 29
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• With a hodgepodge of independents, Hispanics and seniors, the Florida electorate is the battleground voter. The GOP can’t lose the Sunshine State and hope to unseat Obama, there are simply not enough electoral votes left on the map to achieve victory another way.

5. Ohio: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 18
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• Republicans did well in 2010 in the Buckeye State by riding the political trade winds. To win in 2012, the GOP will need a superior GOTV operation, unless of course union members in Ohio abandon Obama.

6. New Hampshire: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 4
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2000
• If Mitt Romney wins the GOP nomination, there will be no doubt as to the status of the Granite State.

7. Nevada: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 6
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• The Silver State has been trending Democratic over the past several presidential cycles, but unemployment in the state is the highest in the nation and that favors the Republican nominee.

8. Colorado: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 9
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• If the GOP ticket wins Florida, Ohio and Colorado, then Obama’s run in the White House will likely over.

9. New Mexico: Toss-up

• Electoral votes: 5
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 2004
• Hispanics are upset with Obama, and if the GOP ticket can make inroads with this demographic then New Mexico could be a real possibility.

10. Pennsylvania: Lean Democratic

• Electoral votes: 20
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 1988
• Obama’s polling numbers in the Keystone State are terrible, but an effective union GOTV effort in the western part of the state combined with a sizeable African-American population in the eastern part of the state should be enough to keep Pennsylvania in Obama’s column.

11. Michigan: Lean Democratic

• Electoral votes: 16
• Last time GOP presidential candidate won state: 1984
• Thanks to his father, if Mitt Romney wins the nomination, Michigan goes from being a “far reach” to just a “reach.”

12. Wisconsin: Lean Democratic

• Electoral votes: 10
• Lat time GOP presidential candidate won state: 1984
• The recent Republican surge in Wisconsin has more to do with state issues than national issues.


2012 electoral college prediction (july 2011)

 


Notes: Nebraska and Maine are being treated as “winner-take-all” states, NOT as states that distribute their electoral votes by the Congressional District Method.

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